Who is favored to win Texas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket?

James Talarico (D), at 71%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 31%; $10.5M has traded on the event. Odds are each outcome's live Yes price and re-render every 15 minutes here; a cloned dashboard refreshes on your plan's cadence — every minute on Developer.

What are the odds for each outcome of Texas Senate Election Winner?

James Talarico (D) 71%, Ken Paxton (R) 31%. Every outcome's odds, weekly move and volume are in the table on this page; the prices are the live Yes price of each outcome's own Polymarket market, so they add up to about 100%.

Where does this data come from?

Each outcome's live price, volume and history from Polymarket's public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer for the smart money: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L and positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of the favourite — every smart wallet by name — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones 7 widgets into your account — the odds lines of the two favourites, the smart money and the biggest holders on James Talarico (D), the Elections markets and tape — and publishes as a page of its own.

Politics · Elections · 2 outcomes · live

Texas Senate Election Winner

Texas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket: James Talarico (D) leads at 71%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 31%. 2 outcomes are listed, $10.5M has traded on the event, $2.2M sits in the books; it closes Nov 4, 2026. The week's biggest move is James Talarico (D), +7 pts. 15 ranked wallets back James Talarico (D) at an average entry of 63¢. Every smart wallet on James Talarico (D) on Polynyx ↗

James Talarico (D)
71%
Ken Paxton (R)
31%
Ranked wallets
back James Talarico (D)
Mover · 7d
James Talaric… +7 pts

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on James Talarico (D) by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

live

outcomes

$10.5M

volume

$2.2M

liquidity

Nov 4

closes

Texas Senate Election Winner · odds race

Odds history

Every outcome by odds

2 outcomes

1James Talarico (D)70.5%
2Ken Paxton (R)30.5%

Every outcome

Odds for all 2 outcomes.

Each outcome is its own Polymarket market; the odds are its live Yes price, the move is over the past week. Open an outcome for its odds history, the smart money on each side, holders and the tape.

Outcome	Odds	7d	Volume	Status
1James Talarico (D)	71%	+7 pts	$4.2M	live
2Ken Paxton (R)	31%	−6 pts	$6.3M	live

More Politics events

FAQ

Who is favored to win Texas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket?: James Talarico (D), at 71%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 31%; $10.5M has traded on the event. Odds are each outcome's live Yes price and re-render every 15 minutes here; a cloned dashboard refreshes on your plan's cadence — every minute on Developer.
What are the odds for each outcome of Texas Senate Election Winner?: James Talarico (D) 71%, Ken Paxton (R) 31%. Every outcome's odds, weekly move and volume are in the table on this page; the prices are the live Yes price of each outcome's own Polymarket market, so they add up to about 100%.
Where does this data come from?: Each outcome's live price, volume and history from Polymarket's public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer for the smart money: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L and positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of the favourite — every smart wallet by name — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones 7 widgets into your account — the odds lines of the two favourites, the smart money and the biggest holders on James Talarico (D), the Elections markets and tape — and publishes as a page of its own.

Part of the Election odds Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live event, the single markets or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.