Political traders
Politics desk
The wallets that are actually winning politics this month, the Fed market's odds curve, and where smart flow disagrees with the crowd.
Politics desk
sample data
Top politics wallets · 30-day P&L
Fed cut in December · odds, 1 month
Smart vs. crowd · Politics (divergence ≥ 10pp)
| Title | Outcome | Smart Wallets | Net Flow | Avg Entry | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next UK general election before 2028? | Yes | 8 | $112k | 0.140 | 0.540 |
| Supreme Court rules on tariffs by March? | Yes | 5 | $71k | 0.580 | 0.150 |
| Debt ceiling raised before Dec 15? | Yes | 3 | $50k | 0.290 | 0.270 |
| Senate passes the budget by year end? | Yes | 5 | $43k | 0.400 | 0.390 |
| Government shutdown by Nov 30? | Yes | 5 | $40k | 0.190 | 0.660 |
Model signals
| Label | Health | Live Signal Count | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| sharp agree | healthy | 8 | 0.620 |
| conviction | healthy | 8 | 0.670 |
| parlay | healthy | 7 | 0.630 |
| late money | building | 3 | 0.590 |
| specialist | healthy | 3 | 0.560 |
- What is on the Politics desk dashboard?
- The wallets that are actually winning politics this month, the Fed market's odds curve, and where smart flow disagrees with the crowd. Widgets: Top politics wallets · 30-day P&L (Trader leaderboard); Fed cut in December · odds, 1 month (Market & odds history); Smart vs. crowd · Politics (divergence ≥ 10pp) (Smart-money conviction); Model signals (Model signals).
- Is the data live?
- Yes — every widget queries the Polynyx Developer API and refreshes on your plan's cadence (15 minutes on Hobby, 1 minute on Developer).
- Can I change it?
- Clone it with one click, then edit any widget's parameters, chart type or layout, add more, and publish it as your own page.