No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 26¢) and lost. Volume $10k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $524k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 95% · No 6% | $268k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 70% · No 31% | $257k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 43% · No 57% | $220k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $213k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $192k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes 83% · No 18% | $172k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $156k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x6ead… | No | $62.20 |
| Porx | No | $27.15 |
| ManipulationOfRisk | No | $25.08 |
| baybug | No | $24.95 |
| CalculatedRisk08 | Yes | $24.30 |
| Bitcoin150K | No | $23.43 |
| maomao228 | No | $20.17 |
| Konfucious | No | $18.45 |
| 0x80fe… | No | $10.54 |
| tinyyyy2333 | No | $10.48 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | $7.05 |
| osmych | No | $6.89 |
59 wallets held a position at the close. The 34 biggest winners took $308; the 25 biggest losers gave up $136. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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