Nicolas Bruna won. Smart money backed Valentin Garay (2 ranked wallets, average entry 30¢) and lost. Volume $4.6k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 34% · IA 12% · IA, KS 6% | $13.3M |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 77% · R Senate, D House 19% · Republicans Sweep 6% | $9.1M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 95% · Republican Party 6% | $5.5M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 77% · Republican Party 24% | $2.5M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 75% · Ken Paxton (R) 26% | $2.3M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81% · Mike Rogers (R) 20% | $1.7M |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 56% · 48 14% · 49 10% | $880k |
| Texas Governor Election Winner | Greg Abbott (R) 62% · Gina Hinojosa (D) 38% | $732k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Mother-Teresa | Nicolas Bruna | $53.04 |
| zoroelnino | Nicolas Bruna | $21.30 |
| ET65 | Nicolas Bruna | $15 |
| Val99977 | Nicolas Bruna | $14 |
| CandleHammerDrums | Nicolas Bruna | $9.83 |
| JOS9 | Nicolas Bruna | $8.55 |
| YEZA | Nicolas Bruna | $8.55 |
| jmp123 | Nicolas Bruna | $8.06 |
| 0x9be8… | Nicolas Bruna | $4.20 |
| MythosOneShot | Nicolas Bruna | $3 |
| AntiVaxxer | Nicolas Bruna | $2.10 |
| amonuss | Nicolas Bruna | $1.22 |
24 wallets held a position at the close. The 15 biggest winners took $152; the 9 biggest losers gave up $266. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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