Pablo Carreno Busta won. Smart money backed Tomas Machac (8 ranked wallets, average entry 43¢) and lost. Volume $1.2M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 78% · R Senate, D House 18% · Republicans Sweep 5% | $7.2M |
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 34% · IA 10% · IA, KS 7% | $5.7M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 96% · Republican Party 5% | $3.6M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 78% · Republican Party 23% | $2.9M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 79% · Mike Rogers (R) 22% | $1.3M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 76% · Ken Paxton (R) 25% | $988k |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02? | Yes 39% · No 62% | $987k |
| Bears vs. Seahawks | Bears 39% · Seahawks 62% | $618k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xe30e… | Pablo Carreno Busta | $296k |
| 0x8a3a… | Pablo Carreno Busta | $6k |
| fastball67 | Pablo Carreno Busta | $6k |
| Tantula | Pablo Carreno Busta | $2k |
| DannyTheValue | Pablo Carreno Busta | $350.00 |
| betvalue79 | Pablo Carreno Busta | $212.38 |
| .Felipe | Pablo Carreno Busta | $194.00 |
| Kalahanda | Pablo Carreno Busta | $188.56 |
| 0xdc81… | Pablo Carreno Busta | $157.94 |
| nick10s | Pablo Carreno Busta | $154.86 |
| nicepoew1 | Pablo Carreno Busta | $141.54 |
| Souleeer | Pablo Carreno Busta | $138.46 |
466 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $312k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $10k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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