Yes won. Smart money backed No (3 ranked wallets, average entry 10¢) and lost. Volume $25k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 29% · OpenAI 2% | $24k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 70% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 2–November 8 12% | $22k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $13k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 40% · November 11 20% · November 9 9% | $11k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 76% · No 24% | $9k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 70% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 9–November 15 7% | $7k |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| ronaldk | No | $724.55 |
| doitwise | Yes | $469.20 |
| rando12345 | Yes | $249.87 |
| 0xa277… | Yes | $203.27 |
| kaixinwan | Yes | $86.69 |
| 2026apr | Yes | $52.79 |
| 8tSnjSWgyo26Gxt | Yes | $52.47 |
| hwey346ed | Yes | $41.89 |
| bonalddrunk | Yes | $40.26 |
| Bersa1202 | Yes | $39.23 |
| NoTeacher | Yes | $38.93 |
| sand1 | Yes | $38.60 |
95 wallets held a position at the close. The 51 biggest winners took $2.3k; the 44 biggest losers gave up $1.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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