Up won. Smart money backed Down (4 ranked wallets, average entry 47¢) and lost. Volume $39k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 69% · No change 30% · 25 bps decrease 1% | $2.7M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 27% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17% · Kamala Harris 5% | $974k |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 21% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% · Kamala Harris 4% | $753k |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 39% · Marco Rubio 19% · Marjorie Taylor Greene 0% | $620k |
| Worlds 2026: Winner | Gen.G 54% · Bilibili Gaming 25% · T1 17% | $468k |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 72% · Puma Shen 29% | $432k |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs | FURIA 66% · BetBoom Team 34% | $362k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $279k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| qmaxm | Up | $458.59 |
| 0x1bc3… | Up | $235.09 |
| 41c | Up | $187.03 |
| hsb881367 | Up | $162.54 |
| RLWG | Up | $125.29 |
| asabovesobelow2 | Up | $120.77 |
| N0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ght | Up | $103.23 |
| laddergem | Up | $84.54 |
| 7ohnson | Up | $52.09 |
| stnwl | Up | $51.60 |
| 0x0801… | Up | $51 |
| irnwl | Up | $48 |
310 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.5k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $6.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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