No won. Smart money backed Yes (8 ranked wallets, average entry 12¢) and lost. Volume $644k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $25k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 67% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 2–November 8 12% | $24k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 55% · November 11 13% · November 9 4% | $13k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $13k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 76% · No 24% | $9k |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 93% · No 7% | $8k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $8k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| dedidanc | No | $3k |
| rewardbots | Yes | $2k |
| 0xffd3… | No | $1k |
| 0x4f71… | No | $774.18 |
| StraddleSeller | No | $764.68 |
| Rocky0420 | No | $743.88 |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | $679.97 |
| RolandChang | No | $618.23 |
| George.Smiley | No | $590.19 |
| melonmanm | No | $522.45 |
| aeo-aeo | No | $503.68 |
| gmeowcl | No | $414.17 |
646 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $18k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $30k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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