No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $1.5k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 52% · No 48% | $58k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on November 6? | 72-73°F 49% · 70-71°F 34% · 68-69°F 12% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Munich on November 6? | 3°C 63% · 6°C 0% · 7°C 0% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Moscow on November 6? | 2°C 98% · 3°C 1% · 4°C 1% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Paris on November 6? | 12°C 42% · 13°C 23% · 11°C 16% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Miami on November 6? | 86-87°F 66% · 84-85°F 33% · 82-83°F 3% | $9k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 48% · 27°C 32% · 29°C 16% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hotcold | No | $0.69 |
| 0xc8d6… | No | $0.50 |
| TRACKER2 | Yes | −$1 |
| 0xf19a… | Yes | −$1 |
4 wallets held a position at the close. The 2 biggest winners took $1; the 2 biggest losers gave up $2. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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