No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 18¢) and lost. Volume $2.1k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $58k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 7? | 20°C 49% · 19°C 28% · 21°C 16% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 49% · 27°C 34% · 29°C 15% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Houston on November 7? | 78-79°F 44% · 76-77°F 37% · 80-81°F 13% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in NYC on November 7? | 60-61°F 46% · 62-63°F 38% · 64-65°F 9% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 7? | 20°C 56% · 19°C 41% · 18°C 5% | $10k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hello.67 | No | $28.97 |
| Bilberry | No | $14.84 |
| twobonclay | No | $6.26 |
| TakeYourTemperature | No | $4.16 |
| weatherwhat | No | $4.07 |
| revollana | No | $3.99 |
| woff1236578 | No | $2.95 |
| chirenbuyu | No | $1.90 |
| 0x3340… | No | $1.57 |
| SonicTheHedhehoh | No | $1.22 |
| Jeffreyfan | No | $0.73 |
| 0x8311… | No | $0.56 |
23 wallets held a position at the close. The 13 biggest winners took $72; the 10 biggest losers gave up $117. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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