Yes won. Smart money backed No (7 ranked wallets, average entry 53¢) and lost. Volume $14k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $58k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on November 6? | 72-73°F 39% · 70-71°F 31% · 74-75°F 16% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Paris on November 6? | 12°C 45% · 13°C 27% · 11°C 21% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Moscow on November 6? | 2°C 75% · 3°C 23% · 4°C 2% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in London on November 6? | 11°C 57% · 12°C 22% · 10°C 20% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Chengdu on November 6? | 20°C 99% · 21°C 1% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Guangzhou on November 6? | 31°C 99% · 32°C 2% | $10k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xeb1b… | Yes | $871.44 |
| sleeper-service | Yes | $426.84 |
| 241532532432 | Yes | $288.60 |
| AuspiciousWolf | Yes | $237.12 |
| Thermomenal | Yes | $208.58 |
| MoneyForSky06 | Yes | $159.49 |
| THEEIGHTWONDER | Yes | $145.45 |
| fildoro | Yes | $135.19 |
| Hassoh | Yes | $97.66 |
| ninja1985 | Yes | $94.72 |
| 0x5f3e… | Yes | $93.41 |
| TakeYourTemperature | Yes | $76.88 |
220 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $4.3k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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