No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 6¢) and lost. Volume $1.3k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 54% · No 47% | $35k |
| Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 6? | 13°C 99% · 14°C 0% | $34k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $21k |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 6? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $18k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 6? | 30°C 99% · 31°C 0% | $17k |
| Highest temperature in Busan on November 6? | 17°C 89% · 18°C 23% | $14k |
| Highest temperature in Wellington on November 6? | 19°C 100% · 20°C 1% | $14k |
| Highest temperature in Moscow on November 6? | 2°C 78% · 3°C 22% · 4°C 1% | $12k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| UKRAINEforever | No | $2.40 |
| Bilberry | No | $1.38 |
| twobonclay | No | $1.16 |
| mashuuuu | No | $1.00 |
| Baccck | No | $0.74 |
| TakeYourTemperature | No | $0.65 |
| APlayBoy | No | $0.59 |
| Calimer0 | Yes | −$4.82 |
| 0x973 | Yes | −$2.20 |
9 wallets held a position at the close. The 7 biggest winners took $8; the 2 biggest losers gave up $7. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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