No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 38¢) and lost. Volume $9.7k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $58k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 7? | 20°C 49% · 19°C 28% · 21°C 16% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 51% · 27°C 34% · 29°C 15% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Houston on November 7? | 78-79°F 44% · 76-77°F 37% · 80-81°F 13% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in NYC on November 7? | 60-61°F 46% · 62-63°F 38% · 64-65°F 9% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 7? | 20°C 56% · 19°C 41% · 18°C 5% | $10k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x6916… | No | $209.73 |
| Bilberry | No | $80.00 |
| man-enough | No | $57.38 |
| WorldHelloER | No | $52.33 |
| tututa | No | $33.33 |
| 0x9c3d… | No | $19.11 |
| qqqppp-l1 | No | $13.33 |
| haiwenxiang | No | $13.05 |
| rocky42008 | No | $12.98 |
| g6j3zpru8au4jci41u4m4hk4 | No | $11 |
| tradeo39 | No | $10.87 |
| 0x1941… | No | $9.87 |
90 wallets held a position at the close. The 55 biggest winners took $613; the 35 biggest losers gave up $641. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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