No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 24¢) and lost. Volume $5.5M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $226k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 98% | $205k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $182k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $159k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $154k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 27% · No 74% | $150k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 40% · No 60% | $123k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $114k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| af84 | No | $11k |
| unsx | Yes | $9k |
| timmythewhale | No | $5k |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $5k |
| Gohst | No | $5k |
| 0x75d1… | No | $2k |
| KrackenSruster | No | $2k |
| NEHenjoyer | No | $2k |
| birubi | No | $1k |
| Tenteck | No | $1k |
| 0x8728…4491 | No | $1k |
| Anothdirhshu | No | $975.00 |
2,764 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $64k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $50k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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