No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 29¢) and lost. Volume $5.7M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 37% · No 63% | $879k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $559k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $400k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $381k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 0% · No 100% | $310k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 39% · No 61% | $259k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $250k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 9% · No 91% | $249k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder | No | $15k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $14k |
| MissaoComFlavio | No | $8k |
| barman1337 | No | $6k |
| Tbhidk-1767 | No | $6k |
| 0x9604… | No | $6k |
| ToTheWindow | Yes | $3k |
| BikesAreTheBikes | No | $3k |
| 0x6deb… | No | $3k |
| smallf | No | $3k |
| Myway | No | $3k |
| berboche | No | $2k |
2,808 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $117k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $159k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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