Yes won. Smart money backed No (8 ranked wallets, average entry 72¢) and lost. Volume $6.7M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 37% · IA 11% · IA, KS 6% | $10.3M |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 76% · R Senate, D House 19% · Republicans Sweep 6% | $8.6M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 95% · Republican Party 6% | $4.5M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 77% · Republican Party 25% | $2.8M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 75% · Ken Paxton (R) 26% | $2.2M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81% · Mike Rogers (R) 21% | $1.6M |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 33% · No 67% | $923k |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 56% · 48 14% · 49 10% | $834k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | Yes | $307k |
| vrv | Yes | $14k |
| austintheory | Yes | $10k |
| Zz2025zZ | Yes | $8k |
| YannisZ | Yes | $6k |
| Magamyman | Yes | $6k |
| Blond-Classmate | Yes | $6k |
| 6557a | Yes | $6k |
| evilangel1337 | Yes | $5k |
| Irish77 | Yes | $5k |
| bidenfan69 | Yes | $3k |
| VLONA | Yes | $3k |
2,400 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $432k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $500k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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