Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 4¢) and lost. Volume $804k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 98% · No 3% | $237k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $237k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 96% · No 4% | $157k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 27% · No 74% | $150k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $146k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 41% · No 60% | $123k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $121k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 73% · No 28% | $108k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder | Yes | $1k |
| 0x690b… | Yes | $869.95 |
| Votei14Voude22 | Yes | $772.07 |
| segment3 | Yes | $616.49 |
| ULYSSES18 | Yes | $415.01 |
| Partial-Thinker | Yes | $394.55 |
| Neon-Gargoyle | Yes | $363.45 |
| NIRVANA87 | Yes | $271.76 |
| MissaoComFlavio | Yes | $265.30 |
| eCash | Yes | $255 |
| SleeperHunter | Yes | $209.79 |
| DooBieZ | Yes | $160.00 |
314 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $7.2k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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