Politics · Geopolitics · live

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?

No 95% · Yes 5%. Volume $3.4k, liquidity $296. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
95%
Yes
5%
Volume
$3.4k
Liquidity
$296

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?

live

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31? · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

95.1%

No

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Nothing positive to split.

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity	24h change
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes 18% · No 83%	$494k	$326k	0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$242k	$513k	0.3%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 98% · No 2%	$199k	$79k	1.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes 45% · No 55%	$191k	$150k	3.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 99% · No 1%	$154k	$43k	0.8%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes 79% · No 22%	$148k	$76k	2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes 3% · No 97%	$140k	$57k	-0.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes 18% · No 83%	$126k	$55k	6%

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

No resting orders on this book right now.

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
881112	Yes	464	8¢	$37.12	$464k
youtube-trader	Yes	300	3¢	$9.30	−$6k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	285	5¢	$13.36	$173k
Nadmi	Yes	104	3¢	$3.11	$154k
wedontdothesame	Yes	84	1¢	$0.78	$305.13
GuyFromTinder	Yes	60	13¢	$7.80	−$100k
.Menthe	Yes	50	0¢	$0.05	$1k
Tallguy2527	Yes	40	10¢	$4.20	−$25k
SuperTests	Yes	37	2¢	$0.84	$18k
0xf53c…6d9c	Yes	22	9¢	$2	−$55.73
nope3050	No	714	92¢	$426.63	$8k
Poory	No	604	91¢	$546.81	$28k

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction

1US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?$27k
2Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?$11k
3US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?$10k
4US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?$14k
5US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?$5k
6Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?$4k
7US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$3k
8Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?$2k
9US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?$3k
10US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$1k

More Geopolitics markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?” on Polymarket?: No 95% · Yes 5%, on $3.4k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

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