Yushan Shao won. Smart money backed Ke Ren (5 ranked wallets, average entry 10¢) and lost. Volume $14k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 33% · Joe Kent 2% · Donald Trump 1% | $1.6M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 27% · James Talarico 4% · Michelle Obama 1% | $1.2M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 20% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · James Talarico 2% | $1.1M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 78% · No change 23% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $510k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $457k |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech | Ben Shelton 65% · Arthur Rinderknech 36% | $427k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $418k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $341k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| stepanka1234 | Yushan Shao | $1k |
| Crovax | Yushan Shao | $31.31 |
| arbtemis | Yushan Shao | $7.59 |
| Valueboss | Yushan Shao | $2.22 |
| tomorrowillbebetter | Yushan Shao | $1.76 |
| Besprizornik | Yushan Shao | $0.87 |
| 0x5f6c… | Yushan Shao | $0.80 |
| Levelhead | Yushan Shao | $0.79 |
| LuckyLoo | Ke Ren | −$166.68 |
| CAcap | Ke Ren | −$87.45 |
| clownly | Ke Ren | −$68.63 |
| alpheclabs | Ke Ren | −$43.11 |
20 wallets held a position at the close. The 8 biggest winners took $1.4k; the 12 biggest losers gave up $424. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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