Bryce Nakashima Nakashima won. Smart money backed Quinn Vandecasteele (3 ranked wallets, average entry 45¢) and lost. Volume $11k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | Ron DeSantis 14% · Brian Kemp 1% · Donald Trump 1% | $3.7M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 26% · Josh Shapiro 5% · Andy Beshear 3% | $2.1M |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $1.6M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 78% · No change 22% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $1.3M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 18% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% · James Talarico 2% | $869k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $766k |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Trail Blazers 86% · Suns 14% | $430k |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 41% · David Lisnard 16% · Christine Lagarde 7% | $413k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xf12f… | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $2k |
| SlickRick123 | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $322.26 |
| okidokimoki | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $74.85 |
| Crovax | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $54.56 |
| alpheclabs | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $54.29 |
| poshposh | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $16.11 |
| JuliiaDiamond | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $8.40 |
| 0xakwz | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $2.60 |
| EYYYY | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $2.45 |
| Dionis81 | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $2.26 |
| ARTEM-DZYUBA | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | $0.65 |
| alpheclabs | Quinn Vandecasteele | −$2k |
26 wallets held a position at the close. The 11 biggest winners took $2.4k; the 15 biggest losers gave up $2.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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