No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 2¢) and lost. Volume $3.8k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $749k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $276k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $247k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $203k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 92% · No 9% | $182k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $174k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $163k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $163k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| annont | No | $2.92 |
| 0xa89d… | No | $1.80 |
| 0x2CA | No | $1.32 |
| Mei-ji | No | $1.00 |
| lpgb | No | $0.99 |
| VerilyWinningly | No | $0.95 |
| thingschange | No | $0.87 |
| FortunaFelix | No | $0.69 |
| 0x1f98… | No | $0.52 |
| hugecaulk | Yes | −$34.43 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | −$14 |
| 0x22d2… | Yes | −$10 |
15 wallets held a position at the close. The 9 biggest winners took $11; the 6 biggest losers gave up $64. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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