Yes won. Smart money backed No (3 ranked wallets, average entry 12¢) and lost. Volume $154. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $58k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 6? | 30°C 100% · 31°C 0% | $22k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Highest temperature in Paris on November 6? | 12°C 49% · 13°C 18% · 11°C 18% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on November 6? | 72-73°F 47% · 70-71°F 27% · 68-69°F 13% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Moscow on November 6? | 2°C 98% · 3°C 2% · 4°C 1% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Munich on November 6? | 3°C 14% · 6°C 6% · 7°C 1% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Miami on November 6? | 86-87°F 63% · 84-85°F 34% · 82-83°F 2% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x3135… | Yes | $7.45 |
| Z7dk3 | Yes | $3.65 |
| newbees | Yes | $2.15 |
| ranksdog | Yes | $1.31 |
| flynatol | Yes | $0.76 |
| dd881 | Yes | $0.72 |
| ComicSansMS | No | −$11.80 |
| tribunal | No | −$9.68 |
| YsWeath | No | −$3.65 |
9 wallets held a position at the close. The 6 biggest winners took $16; the 3 biggest losers gave up $25. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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