No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 13¢) and lost. Volume $236k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $723k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $248k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $179k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 8% · No 93% | $162k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $159k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $151k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $149k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6? | Yes 95% · No 6% | $135k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hugecaulk | No | $3k |
| JsonStatham | No | $984.72 |
| wqeewqeadawfawfwa | No | $800 |
| SeniorLaghetto | No | $614.06 |
| StupidMonkeyyy | No | $569.06 |
| timeistmoney | No | $564.47 |
| myfrenda | No | $404.28 |
| 0x2a5f… | No | $367.75 |
| congoterrier | No | $347.40 |
| idosssss | No | $292.03 |
| Arman2 | No | $236.01 |
| Pulser | No | $165 |
205 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $10k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $11k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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