Yes won. Smart money backed No (14 ranked wallets, average entry 53¢) and lost. Volume $1.8M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $787k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $275k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $237k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $219k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 91% · No 10% | $203k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $183k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $163k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $162k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $14k |
| eCash | Yes | $11k |
| Newshound | Yes | $9k |
| MissaoComFlavio | Yes | $8k |
| LulaVaiPerder | Yes | $7k |
| mini-man | Yes | $5k |
| shuanyang | Yes | $4k |
| Cal800 | Yes | $3k |
| GayPride | Yes | $1k |
| BloodyMummer | Yes | $1k |
| 0x25fc… | Yes | $1k |
| ChadStarmer | Yes | $720 |
1,094 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $77k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $56k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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