No won. Smart money backed Yes (17 ranked wallets, average entry 25¢) and lost. Volume $4.3M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 17% · No 84% | $513k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 8% · No 93% | $304k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $248k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $214k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 23% · No 78% | $197k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $195k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 40% · No 60% | $185k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $161k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $66k |
| 0xffa3… | No | $17k |
| 0x94ce… | No | $7k |
| Imo7o | No | $6k |
| Wickier | Yes | $5k |
| tajir | Yes | $2k |
| GammaSqueeze1234 | No | $2k |
| Oriolrq | No | $1k |
| John-Silver | No | $1k |
| hooterz | Yes | $1k |
| HongKongMenace | No | $1k |
| PepsiWarrior | No | $983.99 |
1,331 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $131k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $88k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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