No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 32¢) and lost. Volume $676k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 35% · OpenAI 5% | $60k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 56% · November 11 10% · November 9 6% | $26k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 72% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 2–November 8 11% | $15k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 69% · Anthropic 28% · OpenAI 4% | $13k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 80% · No 21% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes 98% · No 3% | $8k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 94% | $7k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 48% · November 9–November 15 27% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| ujk | No | $6k |
| GeorgeFuhrer | No | $3k |
| 0x17ed… | No | $3k |
| shehues | No | $3k |
| 0xc28d… | No | $2k |
| 0x6149… | No | $2k |
| Decayer | No | $2k |
| givemetheloot | No | $1k |
| WalkStreetIn | No | $1k |
| 0x7014… | No | $937.79 |
| dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | Yes | $875.23 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $749.93 |
1,488 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $40k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $19k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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