No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 2¢) and lost. Volume $12k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 61% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 2–November 8 11% | $23k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $21k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 55% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $17k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $10k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 75% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 9–November 15 9% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 81% · No 20% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 25% · November 11 24% | $7k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes 5% · No 95% | $5k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| haveagoodday | No | $5.50 |
| noreasapa | No | $4.87 |
| vamosgaming | No | $3.79 |
| fourcoin15m | No | $1.12 |
| 0x022c… | Yes | −$18.82 |
| 0xec35… | Yes | −$8.88 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | −$5.93 |
| X-Rabbit.Sezu | Yes | −$5.51 |
| Selfmadebongos | Yes | −$5.20 |
| acal | Yes | −$5 |
| Mortenlu | Yes | −$3.84 |
| VonVonagh | Yes | −$3.05 |
16 wallets held a position at the close. The 4 biggest winners took $15; the 12 biggest losers gave up $63. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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