No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 57¢) and lost. Volume $23k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $805k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 88% | $231k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 90% · No 11% | $207k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 26% · No 75% | $202k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $196k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $195k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $183k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $157k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Gohst | No | $663.84 |
| ToTheWindow | No | $182.73 |
| ecoradfar | No | $78.33 |
| MrNoItAll | No | $61.21 |
| Hmdj | No | $48.84 |
| Peter.YF | No | $40.48 |
| melonmanm | No | $39.10 |
| yungsoleimani | No | $37.02 |
| MiaoAlpha | No | $35.42 |
| Dunning.Kruger | No | $34.82 |
| Iltangbaek | No | $29.83 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | $22.49 |
97 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.6k; the 34 biggest losers gave up $2.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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