No won. Smart money backed Yes (9 ranked wallets, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $33.4M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 73% · No change 26% · 50+ bps increase 2% | $658k |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 4 (100 bps) 0% | $44k |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in November? | No change 92% · 25 bps decrease 7% | $40k |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 70% · 25 bps increase 25% · 25 bps decrease 2% | $16k |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Pause–Hike 72% · Hike–Pause–Pause 24% | $14k |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 73% · No 27% | $12k |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the February meeting? | Yes 67% · No 34% | $10k |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? | No Change 85% · 25 bps decrease 13% · 50+ bps decrease 2% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| thanksmom | No | $10k |
| 0xe639… | No | $6k |
| farik18 | No | $2k |
| anonboi2 | No | $959.14 |
| chriszyy3 | No | $934.93 |
| kosaks | No | $649.14 |
| ananotherone | No | $584.48 |
| thelastdanceee | No | $538.05 |
| feldupp | No | $528.07 |
| laderdesder | No | $523.70 |
| rw-mehtape | No | $480 |
| 20anniv | No | $475.58 |
1,554 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $32k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $61k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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