No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 48¢) and lost. Volume $207k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 69% · November 2–November 8 13% · November 16–November 22 12% | $25k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 66% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $23k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 38% · OpenAI 5% | $20k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 76% · No 24% | $11k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 26% · November 11 22% · November 9 5% | $9k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $8k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 69% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 9–November 15 8% | $8k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 111test | No | $3k |
| Smart-bettor7 | No | $2k |
| George.Smiley | No | $2k |
| Tremirorot | No | $1k |
| dedidanc | No | $772.61 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | $450.24 |
| cym1969 | No | $355.10 |
| hadarhaddad | No | $282.94 |
| 0x4f71… | No | $202.05 |
| gmeowcl | No | $138.52 |
| fjlivy | No | $135.39 |
| Rocky0420 | No | $120.86 |
235 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $11k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $7.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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