Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Fed & Rates · live

Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

No 99% · Yes 1%. Smart money leans No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 99¢). Volume $1.6k, liquidity $4.1k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
99%
Yes
1%
Volume
$1.6k
Liquidity
$4.1k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

2 wallets · 53 known shares

GuyFromTinder
entry 15¢ · all-time −$100k · win 45%
SpringlyFawl
entry — · all-time +$30k · win 41%

No

2 wallets · 290 known shares

taut-dogwood
entry 99¢ · all-time +$48k · win 96%
0x6fa70d
entry 80¢ · all-time +$42k · win 85%

More Fed & Rates markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?” on Polymarket?: No 99% · Yes 1%, on $1.6k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?”?: Smart money leans No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 99¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

live

Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rat… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

99.2%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

No29085%
Yes5315%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Fed & Rates markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase 71% · No change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2%	$121k	$1.9M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?	0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) 1%	$26k	$679k
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?	2 (50 bps) 73% · 1 (25 bps) 28%	$21k	$132k
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March?	25 bps increase 37% · 25 bps decrease 18%	$11k	$4k
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?	No change 90% · 25 bps decrease 10%	$11k	$29k
Bank of Canada Decision in December?	No Change 62% · 25 bps increase 38%	$10k	$10k
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November	25 bps increase 94% · No change 5%	$10k	$12k
Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes 12% · No 89%	$7k	$2k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 0.5¢ask 1.1¢spread 0.6¢mid 0.8¢

SizeBid

AskSize

4830.5¢

1.1¢82

500.3¢

1.2¢100

4880.2¢

1.3¢100

5210.1¢

1.4¢100

1.5¢300

1.6¢100

1.7¢100

1.8¢100

1.9¢100

2¢103

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	All-time P&L
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	609	$193k
jozeslemsek	Yes	317	$3k
Numitus1994	Yes	101	−$36k
duder228	Yes	85	−$0.02
0x43cb…84df	Yes	58	$85k
zeitfi-vault-v2	Yes	46	$2k
tradetosurvive1	Yes	40	−$220k
haouibao	Yes	40	−$143.19
Dr.PNL	Yes	33	−$500k
GuyFromTinder	Yes	29	−$100k
0xa5ef39	No	1k	$0
taut-dogwood	No	197	$48k

Smart-money conviction · Fed & Rates

Smart-money conviction

1Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$30k
2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$3k
3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$2k
4Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?$2k
5Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?$285.05