Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $5.6k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $9k |
| Gas prices on November 5? | $4.1000-4.1099 96% · <$4.1000 1% | $8k |
| Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM) | -0.2 to -0.1% 63% · 0.0 to 0.1% 22% · <-0.2% 13% | $6k |
| October Inflation US - Annual | 3.7% 88% · 3.8% 9% · 3.6% 1% | $5k |
| Core PCE YoY - October 2026 | 3.2% 39% · 3.3% 18% · 3.4%+ 5% | $4k |
| 2026 World GDP Growth | 3.1% 30% · 3.2% 28% | $4k |
| Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%? | Yes 48% · No 52% | $3k |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | Yes 13% · No 87% | $3k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| PERP-RFQ | Yes | $150.19 |
| aschenbrenner | Yes | $86.40 |
| 0x269e… | Yes | $55.84 |
| LllLH | Yes | $33.18 |
| fresh | Yes | $11.50 |
| richyee | Yes | $10.63 |
| 0xc323… | Yes | $7.40 |
| lpgb | No | $2.42 |
| signer1319 | Yes | $1.51 |
| lpgb | Yes | $0.80 |
| LornaPredicts | No | −$35.88 |
| AJSV2 | No | −$30 |
22 wallets held a position at the close. The 10 biggest winners took $360; the 12 biggest losers gave up $115. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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