Who is favored to win Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 on Polymarket?

J.D. Vance, at 37%, ahead of Marco Rubio at 21%; $720.5M has traded on the event. Odds are each outcome's live Yes price and re-render every 15 minutes here; a cloned dashboard refreshes on your plan's cadence — every minute on Developer.

What are the odds for each outcome of Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?

J.D. Vance 37%, Marco Rubio 21%, Ron DeSantis 4%, Tucker Carlson 3%, Ted Cruz 3%, and 38 more. Every outcome's odds, weekly move and volume are in the table on this page; the prices are the live Yes price of each outcome's own Polymarket market, so they add up to about 100%.

Where does this data come from?

Each outcome's live price, volume and history from Polymarket's public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer for the smart money: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L and positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of the favourite — every smart wallet by name — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones 7 widgets into your account — the odds lines of the two favourites, the smart money and the biggest holders on J.D. Vance, the Elections markets and tape — and publishes as a page of its own.

Politics · Elections · 43 outcomes · live

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 on Polymarket: J.D. Vance leads at 37%, ahead of Marco Rubio at 21% and Ron DeSantis at 4%. 43 outcomes are listed, $720.5M has traded on the event, $47.9M sits in the books; it closes Nov 8, 2028. The week's biggest move is Marco Rubio, +3.7 pts. Every smart wallet on J.D. Vance on Polynyx ↗

J.D. Vance
37%
Marco Rubio
21%
Ranked wallets
none ranked
Mover · 7d
Marco Rubio +3.7 pts

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on J.D. Vance by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

live

outcomes

$720.5M

volume

$47.9M

liquidity

Nov 8

closes

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · odds race

Odds history

Every outcome by odds

43 outcomes

1J.D. Vance37.4%
2Marco Rubio21.4%
3Ron DeSantis4%
4Tucker Carlson3.1%
5Ted Cruz2.6%
6Donald Trump Jr.1.7%
7Donald Trump1.7%
8Ivanka Trump1.6%
9Glenn Youngkin0.9%
10Elon Musk0.8%
11Thomas Massie0.8%
12Brian Kemp0.7%
13Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.4%
14Josh Hawley0.4%

Biggest moves · past week

Odds momentum

1Marco Rubio+3.7 pts
2J.D. Vance-2.5 pts
3Ron DeSantis+0.8 pts
4Glenn Youngkin+0.6 pts
5Elon Musk+0.6 pts

Every outcome

Odds for all 43 outcomes.

Each outcome is its own Polymarket market; the odds are its live Yes price, the move is over the past week. Open an outcome for its odds history, the smart money on each side, holders and the tape.

Outcome	Odds	7d	Volume	Status
1J.D. Vance	37%	−2.5 pts	$16.4M	live
2Marco Rubio	21%	+3.7 pts	$11.1M	live
3Ron DeSantis	4%	+0.8 pts	$16.1M	live
4Tucker Carlson	3%	—	$13.9M	live
5Ted Cruz	3%	—	$19.9M	live
6Donald Trump Jr.	2%	—	$9.8M	live
7Donald Trump	2%	—	$9.7M	live
8Ivanka Trump	2%	—	$9.0M	live
9Glenn Youngkin	1%	+0.6 pts	$9.0M	live
10Elon Musk	1%	+0.6 pts	$32.0M	live
11Thomas Massie	1%	—	$6.3M	live
12Brian Kemp	1%	—	$18.2M	live
13Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0%	—	$17.0M	live
14Josh Hawley	0%	—	$20.5M	live
15Rand Paul	0%	—	$19.8M	live
16Marjorie Taylor Greene	0%	—	$6.8M	live
17Pete Hegseth	0%	—	$9.4M	live
18Tom Cotton	0%	—	$1.8M	live
19Greg Abbott	0%	—	$21.6M	live
20Katie Britt	0%	—	$29.0M	live
21Candace Owens	0%	—	$1.0M	live
22Tulsi Gabbard	0%	—	$14.5M	live
23Nikki Haley	0%	—	$10.6M	live
24Vivek Ramaswamy	0%	—	$16.3M	live
25Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0%	—	$36.2M	live
26Byron Donalds	0%	—	$44.6M	live
27Elise Stefanik	0%	—	$28.2M	live
28Kristi Noem	0%	—	$37.8M	live
29Mike Pence	0%	—	$43.8M	live
30Steve Bannon	0%	—	$23.1M	live
31Eric Trump	0%	—	$10.6M	live
32Joe Kent	0%	—	$9.0M	live
33Tim Scott	0%	—	$1.5M	live
34Doug Burgum	0%	—	$1.7M	live
35John N. Kennedy	0%	—	$1.6M	live
36John McEntee	0%	—	$631k	live
37Matt Gaetz	0%	—	$20.6M	live
38John Thune	0%	—	$38.6M	live
39Tom Brady	0%	—	$33.1M	live
40Erika Kirk	0%	—	$19.1M	live
41Kim Kardashian	0%	—	$28.6M	live
42Mike Johnson	0%	—	$920k	live
43Rick Scott	0%	—	$872k	live

More Politics events

FAQ

Who is favored to win Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 on Polymarket?: J.D. Vance, at 37%, ahead of Marco Rubio at 21%; $720.5M has traded on the event. Odds are each outcome's live Yes price and re-render every 15 minutes here; a cloned dashboard refreshes on your plan's cadence — every minute on Developer.
What are the odds for each outcome of Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?: J.D. Vance 37%, Marco Rubio 21%, Ron DeSantis 4%, Tucker Carlson 3%, Ted Cruz 3%, and 38 more. Every outcome's odds, weekly move and volume are in the table on this page; the prices are the live Yes price of each outcome's own Polymarket market, so they add up to about 100%.
Where does this data come from?: Each outcome's live price, volume and history from Polymarket's public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer for the smart money: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L and positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of the favourite — every smart wallet by name — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones 7 widgets into your account — the odds lines of the two favourites, the smart money and the biggest holders on J.D. Vance, the Elections markets and tape — and publishes as a page of its own.

Part of the Election odds Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live event, the single markets or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.