Hou Chun Chien won. Smart money backed Alibek Kachmazov (10 ranked wallets, average entry 51¢) and lost. Volume $53k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 34% · IA 10% · IA, KS 6% | $12.3M |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 76% · R Senate, D House 18% · Republicans Sweep 5% | $9.6M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 95% · Republican Party 6% | $5.6M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 77% · Republican Party 24% | $2.9M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 73% · Ken Paxton (R) 28% | $2.8M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81% · Mike Rogers (R) 20% | $1.5M |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 56% · 48 14% · 49 11% | $878k |
| Texas Governor Election Winner | Greg Abbott (R) 63% · Gina Hinojosa (D) 37% | $832k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x61a8… | Hou Chun Chien | $9k |
| JourneyPM | Hou Chun Chien | $2k |
| tnns1 | Hou Chun Chien | $789.21 |
| dbbbt | Hou Chun Chien | $779.71 |
| realmadrid090 | Hou Chun Chien | $663.82 |
| Allz01 | Hou Chun Chien | $575 |
| 0x6318… | Hou Chun Chien | $510.38 |
| anon122 | Hou Chun Chien | $427.19 |
| mrkenlin8877 | Hou Chun Chien | $282.57 |
| raptor67 | Hou Chun Chien | $206 |
| Arcus-AI | Hou Chun Chien | $168.75 |
| CandleHammerDrums | Hou Chun Chien | $158.84 |
73 wallets held a position at the close. The 24 biggest winners took $16k; the 49 biggest losers gave up $11k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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