No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 16¢) and lost. Volume $775k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 16% · No 85% | $477k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 9% · No 92% | $307k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $252k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $238k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $213k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $203k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 42% · No 58% | $189k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 82% · No 19% | $134k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hugecaulk | No | $9k |
| 881112 | No | $6k |
| tsekinming01 | No | $5k |
| suraxy | No | $2k |
| Discombobulator7 | No | $2k |
| congoterrier | No | $1k |
| 38327832383823 | No | $1k |
| 0xc1db… | No | $1k |
| Arielbot2828 | No | $1k |
| 0x77df… | No | $1k |
| 0x9794… | No | $1k |
| JsonStatham | No | $865.72 |
416 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $45k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $36k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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