Mikael Arseneault won. Smart money backed Eliot Nobel (4 ranked wallets, average entry 21¢) and lost. Volume $1.3k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 77% · No change 21% · 50+ bps decrease 1% | $1.5M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Abdul El-Sayed 1% · Elissa Slotkin 0% | $1.4M |
| LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs | Karmine Corp 17% · T1 83% | $1.2M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 38% · Nikki Haley 1% · Rick Scott 0% | $1.0M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 20% · Jon Ossoff 19% · Glenn Youngkin 0% | $652k |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | T1 36% · Karmine Corp 65% | $614k |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | T1 66% · Karmine Corp 35% | $506k |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 69% · Puma Shen 32% | $484k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| stepanka1234 | Mikael Arseneault | $61.81 |
| Treadwcaution | Mikael Arseneault | $31.58 |
| eFMBS | Mikael Arseneault | $15.75 |
| arbtemis | Mikael Arseneault | $12.47 |
| 0x6b25… | Mikael Arseneault | $12.45 |
| ET65 | Mikael Arseneault | $10 |
| 0x9be8… | Mikael Arseneault | $8.80 |
| castorcurse | Mikael Arseneault | $7.50 |
| JOS9 | Mikael Arseneault | $6.05 |
| YEZA | Mikael Arseneault | $3.17 |
| 0xbfd7… | Mikael Arseneault | $3 |
| 0xec9f… | Mikael Arseneault | $2.66 |
32 wallets held a position at the close. The 19 biggest winners took $186; the 13 biggest losers gave up $213. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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