No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 66¢) and lost. Volume $94k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $25k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 70% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 2–November 8 11% | $25k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 62% · November 11 15% · November 9 5% | $13k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $13k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 76% · No 24% | $9k |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 93% · No 7% | $8k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $8k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| iutwpfal | No | $5k |
| rewardbots | No | $4k |
| DOMOTO39 | Yes | $830.39 |
| lamyk | No | $654.58 |
| magickD3MiAN | No | $551.94 |
| Knowyourball | Yes | $500.43 |
| AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee | No | $348.60 |
| Poivre | No | $334.78 |
| SingletonFamilyFund | No | $304.14 |
| SuperTests | No | $294.80 |
| tja | No | $234.70 |
| 0x34a9… | No | $203.79 |
171 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $15k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $11k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
Browse every live market, the recently resolved markets or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.