No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $2.5k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026? | Yes 0% · No 100% | $1.1M |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026? | Yes 96% · No 4% | $538k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 98% · No 3% | $506k |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $360k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $282k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 46% · No 54% | $191k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 78% · No 23% | $189k |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026? | Yes 1% · No 100% | $156k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| tianjiyuyunzhilu | No | $2.04 |
| rrqqzq | No | $0.91 |
| CalculatedRisk08 | Yes | −$1.10 |
3 wallets held a position at the close. The 2 biggest winners took $3; the 1 biggest losers gave up $1. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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