Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 42¢) and lost. Volume $78k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $427k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 5% · No 95% | $422k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 40% · No 60% | $224k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $206k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $159k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 16% · No 85% | $150k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $127k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes 46% · No 55% | $115k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| timesoft | Yes | $26k |
| GOLADS96 | Yes | $67.90 |
| Udonsan | Yes | $27.62 |
| deuxgaules | Yes | $23.72 |
| Raskell | Yes | $23.09 |
| 0x5f3e… | Yes | $14.07 |
| GekkeHenkie23 | Yes | $8.80 |
| Johnny-Worker | Yes | $7.95 |
| SuSuDORIS | No | $6.84 |
| solipsistic | Yes | $6.10 |
| long-time | Yes | $5.51 |
| DSW-328.J7 | Yes | $4.80 |
38 wallets held a position at the close. The 17 biggest winners took $26k; the 21 biggest losers gave up $26k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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