Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory on Polymarket: Talarico 3-6% leads at 34%, ahead of Talarico 0-3% at 28% and Paxton 0-3% at 16%. 10 outcomes are listed, $233k has traded on the event, $596k sits in the books; it closes Nov 4, 2026. The week's biggest move is Talarico 3-6%, +10.5 pts. 3 ranked wallets back Talarico 3-6% at an average entry of 25¢. Every smart wallet on Talarico 3-6% on Polynyx ↗
Each outcome is its own Polymarket market; the odds are its live Yes price, the move is over the past week. Open an outcome for its odds history, the smart money on each side, holders and the tape.
| Outcome | Odds | 7d | Volume | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Talarico 3-6% | 34% | live | ||
| 2Talarico 0-3% | 28% | live | ||
| 3Paxton 0-3% | 16% | live | ||
| 4Talarico 6-9% | 15% | live | ||
| 5Paxton 3-6% | 5% | live | ||
| 6Talarico 9-12% | 3% | live | ||
| 7Talarico 12%+ | 3% | live | ||
| 8Paxton 6-9% | 3% | live | ||
| 9Paxton 12%+ | 1% | live | ||
| 10Paxton 9-12% | 0% | live |
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